what will this industry look like in 5 years? 10 years?
- Thread starter bookfish
- Start date
Wholesalers/importers will still be wholesaling/importing.
Transhippers will still be transhipping.
Retail B&Mers, and onliners will still be retailing.
More and more species will continue to be captive bred/propagated at the wholesale level.
And everyone will still be creating their own 'tempests in teapots' .
Double or triple that decade time frame, and I think the whole import/transship/collection from the wild will cease completely, as a result of complete and total degradation/extinction of the reef systems worldwide , or a near enough degradation to make the MO collection industry cost prohibitive.
8O
Transhippers will still be transhipping.
Retail B&Mers, and onliners will still be retailing.
More and more species will continue to be captive bred/propagated at the wholesale level.
And everyone will still be creating their own 'tempests in teapots' .
Double or triple that decade time frame, and I think the whole import/transship/collection from the wild will cease completely, as a result of complete and total degradation/extinction of the reef systems worldwide , or a near enough degradation to make the MO collection industry cost prohibitive.
8O
Reducing the time line a bit, I think 2010 will be a very tough year in both the aquatic hard goods and livestock sectors.
According to vendors and personal experience, after a brief lift in demand for aquatic goods in October and November 2009, it appears the American consumer is increasingly becoming concerned with the uncertain economy ahead. Most aquatic vendors report a dismal January 2010 to date ( when compared to previous Januarys ).
Reduced demand and contraction of the hobby in general along with a changing distribution and an announced increase in Fedx rates does not point to a very healthy and smooth 2010 for the aquatics industry. Inflation too may rear it's ugly head ( first big hint in today's news). Fuel will increase as the dollar strengthens and surcharges will reappear, the result being a continued increase in freight charges ( assuming the economy improves).
Bottom line IMO, fewer people will enter and continue with the hobby, those left will spend less and there will be a continued consolidation and changing distribution pattern in the supply end. I am going to spend less too.
Race
According to vendors and personal experience, after a brief lift in demand for aquatic goods in October and November 2009, it appears the American consumer is increasingly becoming concerned with the uncertain economy ahead. Most aquatic vendors report a dismal January 2010 to date ( when compared to previous Januarys ).
Reduced demand and contraction of the hobby in general along with a changing distribution and an announced increase in Fedx rates does not point to a very healthy and smooth 2010 for the aquatics industry. Inflation too may rear it's ugly head ( first big hint in today's news). Fuel will increase as the dollar strengthens and surcharges will reappear, the result being a continued increase in freight charges ( assuming the economy improves).
Bottom line IMO, fewer people will enter and continue with the hobby, those left will spend less and there will be a continued consolidation and changing distribution pattern in the supply end. I am going to spend less too.
Race
I agree with Race & Jim on this one. 2010 is starting out rough and likely to get even worse. We recently received notice our health insurance is going up about 20%. Our electric rates are going up too, even before cap and trade. Gasoline looks like it is going up sharply. Property taxes are also going up. So we have sales going down and operating expenses going sharply up. All this and our customers disposable income is shrinking. I think people realize inflation is coming and are holding onto their money more tightly. The aquatics hobby is a luxury and easy to cut out. This may be the year the doomsday predictions for independent brick and mortars starts to come true, but perhaps an increase in FedEx shipping rates will be a gift to the B&M. Time to tighten the belt a few notches I guess.
Wow... what a bunch of gloomy Guses.
I've been marketing the devil out of my business, and halfway through the month, I'm about even with last January in its entirety (and last January stunk to high heaven). We've got work galore right now.
Q4 of 2009 started looking up for us, and we're riding the wave into January. Whether it will keep going, I can't say, but I'm seeing other businesses around me start to pick up a bit too.
We're still a far cry from where we were when the bottom fell out of the economy, but I'm pleased with how 2010 has started.
Positive attitude goes a long way, folks.
Jenn
I've been marketing the devil out of my business, and halfway through the month, I'm about even with last January in its entirety (and last January stunk to high heaven). We've got work galore right now.
Q4 of 2009 started looking up for us, and we're riding the wave into January. Whether it will keep going, I can't say, but I'm seeing other businesses around me start to pick up a bit too.
We're still a far cry from where we were when the bottom fell out of the economy, but I'm pleased with how 2010 has started.
Positive attitude goes a long way, folks.
Jenn
I hope that you stay busy Jenn and I am sure that individual stores in certain demographics will prosper while those in other areas may not.
The question though was more broad in that he asked about the industry, not how we were doing in our individual stores or businesses. I tend to look at the supply end to evaluate that as well as make a speculative guess on future consumer demand. I may be wrong, but overall I see a contracting industry. That does not mean that retail or etail is dead, it means to meet the "Race forecasted" national reduced customer demand, the overall number of stores and shelf space dedicated to the aquarium trade is likely to decrease. It does not mean that some individual stores will not actually increase profits while others cease to exist.
Why do I see a reduced customer demand? First, todays youths have a lot more options to occupy their time and money. I do not see aquariums as a growing trend with children or their moms. I suspect Walmart believes that too. Secondly, as Mitch stated, aquariums even to an adult are USUALLY a luxery item and cost money while making no monetary contribution to a retirement plan, education, or a general family necessity. Lastly, the green movement, whatever it is, will not have a paragraph, or sentiment, endorsing plucking ornamental fish and corals from the ocean for personal financial gain. They know from this board that mortality is high, sustainability is in question, quality healthcare controls are nonexistent and some species are invasive. They also understand the term "smuggle" and with sloppy paperwork etc the hobby cannot separate itself from that term.
In conclusion, without talking politics, there is a serious course developing of future taxation at every conceivable creative level which will help redistribute the wealth from the aquarists pocketbook to that of a nonworking or low income voter. That coupled with inflation leads me to believe that the average aquarist and their family will have less money to spend on luxery items. The trend will continue well beyond 2010. Just my opinion, I hope that I am wrong.
The question though was more broad in that he asked about the industry, not how we were doing in our individual stores or businesses. I tend to look at the supply end to evaluate that as well as make a speculative guess on future consumer demand. I may be wrong, but overall I see a contracting industry. That does not mean that retail or etail is dead, it means to meet the "Race forecasted" national reduced customer demand, the overall number of stores and shelf space dedicated to the aquarium trade is likely to decrease. It does not mean that some individual stores will not actually increase profits while others cease to exist.
Why do I see a reduced customer demand? First, todays youths have a lot more options to occupy their time and money. I do not see aquariums as a growing trend with children or their moms. I suspect Walmart believes that too. Secondly, as Mitch stated, aquariums even to an adult are USUALLY a luxery item and cost money while making no monetary contribution to a retirement plan, education, or a general family necessity. Lastly, the green movement, whatever it is, will not have a paragraph, or sentiment, endorsing plucking ornamental fish and corals from the ocean for personal financial gain. They know from this board that mortality is high, sustainability is in question, quality healthcare controls are nonexistent and some species are invasive. They also understand the term "smuggle" and with sloppy paperwork etc the hobby cannot separate itself from that term.
In conclusion, without talking politics, there is a serious course developing of future taxation at every conceivable creative level which will help redistribute the wealth from the aquarists pocketbook to that of a nonworking or low income voter. That coupled with inflation leads me to believe that the average aquarist and their family will have less money to spend on luxery items. The trend will continue well beyond 2010. Just my opinion, I hope that I am wrong.
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